Is Clean Energy Growing Fast Enough?

Clean energy technologies have witnessed remarkable advancements in recent years, making it possible to envision the entire global economy being powered by clean energy. But how fast is clean energy really growing, and is it growing fast enough to replace all fossil fuels, and to prevent the effects of catastrophic climate in the process? This is one of the most important questions in the world, and almost everyone would like to know the answer to this question. By using specific examples, we’ll try to get a feel for how fast clean energy is growing, and substantiate the extent of this transformation.

When looking at the current clean energy revolution, there is one resource that stands out in particular. This resource not only stands out for its abundance, but also because of the benefits that it can provide to humanity. Solar energy is the most abundant resource on Earth. Humans have dreamed of harnessing this resource for thousands of years. Only in the last 50 years though, have we actually had the technology to harness this resource at scale. The technologies that are driving the clean energy revolution, are moving at speeds that have never seen before in physical infrastructure. Let's take a look at why clean energy technologies are some of the most exciting technologies, in the world.

Solar photovoltaic cells are what we use to capture solar energy, and they are extraordinary devices. They convert sunlight directly to electricity, in one step, with no moving parts. This alone is an amazing feat, but it just scratches the surface of why solar cells are so unique. The advantage that solar cells have (that few other technologies have, let alone energy technologies) is that they benefit from exponential learning curves. Understanding exponential learning curves is the key to understanding how fast clean energy is growing. If you are not familiar with learning curves or with exponential technologies, then all you need to know, is that they grow incredibly fast.

Throughout history, the adoption of many technologies has followed an S-curve. All this means, is that the growth/adoption starts off very slowly, and then after a certain point, accelerates rapidly, before slowing down again, once the technology reaches maturity/saturation. Why is any of this important to clean energy? Well, because clean energy technologies, such as solar panels, and electric vehicles, also follow an S-curve adoption. Since no two technologies grow at the same rate, it's also important to distinguish between different technologies in order to understand how quickly each one of them growing. People also often confuse energy resources, with energy technologies, so separating out each technology helps to get a more accurate answer.

Oil, for example, is not a technology, it is a resource. Solar energy is also not a technology, it is a resource. We use a variety of technologies to extract the energy contained within oil, such as drill, pumps, pipes, motors, turbines, and engines. We also use a variety of different technologies to extract and use the energy coming from the sun, such as photovoltaic cells, mirrors, pipes, water, turbines, and batteries. However, unlike the technologies used to harness fuels, many of the technologies that are used to harness clean energy, follow exponential learning curves. The technologies used to extract fossil fuels on the other hand, do not follow learning curves. They have become increasingly sophisticated over time, but they are established technologies, which will not get significantly cheaper from where they are today.

Since the technologies associated with extracting the energy contained in fossil fuel resources are not considered exponential technologies, they do not benefit from the rapid cost reductions that can happen over time. Drills and pipes still cost roughly what they did 50 years, and they will cost the same 50 years from now. The same cannot be said about solar photovoltaic cells which are specifically designed to harness as much solar energy as possible, and get cheaper every year.

An analysis by MIT researches confirmed that the price of solar panels has declined by more than 99% over the last four decades. In a few decades, it will be essentially free to produce electricity from solar panels. Meanwhile, the price of extracting the energy within oil, gas, and coal, has remained largely unchanged. This is ultimately why clean energy will win, and will power the entire world in the future. It will simply be cheaper to power the world with clean energy, and fossil fuels will not be able to compete.

Solar energy has emerged as a frontrunner in the clean energy revolution. The efficiency of solar panels has seen substantial increases over time. The first solar cells that were created by Bell Labs in the 1950's had an efficient of just 6%. Today you can buy solar panels that have efficiencies over 25%, and with new technologies, this number could one day be pushed upwards, to 45%. Now that there are billions of solar panels around the planet, even a 1% improvement in efficiency, makes a huge difference.

Now, for the second part of the question. Will clean energy grow fast enough to replace fossil fuels, and help us avoid the worst impacts of climate change? This is a more difficult and nuanced question to answer. Lets break it down, and see what conclusions we can make. Will clean energy replace fossil fuels? The answer to that question is unequivocally yes. This transition is already well underway, and will likely be over, before the start of the next century. Fossil fuels, are finite, so we will have to transition to renewable sources of energy at some point, even if they are not completely phased-out this century.

Will clean energy help us avoid catastrophic climate change? This question is hard to answer due to the number of variabilities involved, but we can say for sure that clean energy is already helping us do just that. Since the emissions from fossil fuels are the main driver of climate change, this means that all the energy that has ever been produced by zero carbon sources, has gone towards reducing the effects of climate change.

Will the current growth be enough to avoid catastrophic damage to our civilization? No one knows the answer to this question, but let's not find out what happens if it isn't. As long as we are not complacent, and we work as fast as we can to eliminate greenhouse gas emissions, then we will most likely be able to create a world that is able to overcome the effects of climate change. This is the future that we need to strive for, because it is the one that allows humans, to advance the farthest into the future.